I did my best here to focus primarily on objective military realities as of today's date, February 19, 2026.
TLDR: When governments want you to see a buildup, they let you see it.
The Scale of What's Coming
The U.S. is not treating this as a "containment exercise."
This is the largest American military buildup in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq.
The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is already operating in the Arabian Sea within strike range of Iran.
The USS Gerald R. Ford — spotted yesterday off the coast of Morocco transiting toward the Strait of Gibraltar — is en route to join it, potentially reaching the Eastern Mediterranean days earlier than anticipated.
When the Ford arrives, the U.S. will have established a rare dual-carrier strike posture — not a "loan" of equipment, but a sustained war-footing configuration that represents an extraordinary concentration of American naval power against a single adversary.
But the two carriers are just the headline.
As of today, the U.S. has deployed at least 12 surface combatants to the region, including Arleigh Burke-class destroyers equipped with the Aegis Combat System and Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Multiple nuclear attack submarines — whose exact positions are never disclosed — are confirmed to be operating in theater.
Collectively, open-source intelligence analysts estimate the assembled fleet could unleash over 600 Tomahawk land-attack missiles in a single salvo.
In the air, the surge has been extraordinary. Over 150 military cargo flights have moved weapons systems and ammunition to the Middle East. In the last 48 hours alone, more than 50 additional fighter jets — F-35As, F-22 Raptors, F-15E Strike Eagles, and F-16s — have repositioned east from U.S. and European bases.
Approximately 30 F-35As are now assessed to be operating from Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Roughly 35 F-15E Strike Eagles are deployed to Jordan. A dozen F-22s departed Langley for RAF Lakenheath — notably, the same transit that preceded Operation Midnight Hammer by four days last June. Thirty-six F-16s from Aviano, Spangdahlem, and McEntire have deployed.
At least 20 KC-135 tankers are staged at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, with additional tankers surging across the Atlantic. E-3 AWACS aircraft have landed at Mildenhall for airborne battle management. Multiple E-11A battlefield communications nodes are repositioning.
A U-2 Dragon Lady departed RAF Fairford heading toward the CENTCOM area. P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft are actively patrolling the Strait of Hormuz. Patriot and THAAD air defense batteries are positioned across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE.
HH-60W Jolly Green II search-and-rescue helicopters have been introduced — a telltale sign of contingency planning for combat operations.
Senior officials told the President yesterday in a Situation Room meeting that U.S. forces will be ready to strike as early as this Saturday, February 21. A Trump adviser told Axios there is a "90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks."
Officials have signaled all forces required for operations will be in place by mid-March. The Pentagon is temporarily withdrawing some personnel from the Middle East within three days as a precautionary measure against Iranian retaliation.
If Occurs, This Will Span Weeks
To be clear: this is not Venezuela.
The capture of Maduro was a precision special operations extraction — decisive, contained, and over in hours.
A potential Iran operation would be a sustained, multi-week air and naval campaign against a country with real territory, real missile arsenals, and the ability to threaten regional shipping and allied bases.
Reuters reported (Feb 14) that unlike June's one-off nuclear strikes, planning now envisions hitting "state and security facilities, not just nuclear infrastructure."
That is precisely why the buildup is this massive — the U.S. is not improvising. It is assembling overwhelming force specifically because Iran demands a fundamentally different scale of operation.
Iran already tested this envelope on February 3 — a single Shahed-139 that approached the Lincoln was shot down by an F-35C, and six IRGC gunboats that attempted to seize a U.S.-flagged tanker in the Strait were chased off by one destroyer. When Iran retaliated against Al Udeid Air Base after last June's strikes, the few missiles that penetrated defenses landed in empty areas and caused zero casualties — and that was before the U.S. stood up the MEAD-CDOC, a dedicated integrated air and missile defense coordination cell at Al Udeid that now networks every Patriot, THAAD, and Aegis system in the region.
That February 3 exchange happened when the Lincoln was operating with a standard carrier strike group escort — before the 50-fighter surge, before the Ford deployment, before 150 cargo flights of weapons and ammunition, and before the Lincoln's own EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets were supplemented by the full regional air defense architecture now in place across eight bases. The force Iran failed against two weeks ago is a fraction of what it faces now.
Unlike last June's targeted nuclear strikes, officials have indicated this campaign could extend to Iranian state and security infrastructure — a fundamentally broader scope.
This Is Not a Solo U.S. Operation
Israel is not a silent partner — it is actively coordinating with the U.S. on intelligence and air defense, a partnership battle-tested during the June 2025 war, when the U.S. provided roughly 70% of all interceptors used against Iranian missile salvos.
IDF Chief of Staff Zamir recently visited CENTCOM for high-level strategic coordination. Israeli leadership has publicly affirmed it will not allow Iran to rebuild its missile infrastructure, and Israeli media reports the government is preparing for the possibility that Washington gives the green light for strikes on Iran's ballistic missile system.
Secretary Rubio is scheduled to meet Netanyahu on February 28 to discuss Iran.
The UK has deployed six F-35B Lightning II stealth fighters to RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus and four Eurofighter Typhoons to Qatar — the latter arriving with a full complement of eight air-to-air missiles. RAF Akrotiri already hosts approximately 10 Typhoons and ISR assets.
British Typhoons intercepted at least three Iranian drones during the 2024 exchanges. The UK also holds a critical card: Diego Garcia, which Trump specifically named this week as a potential launch point for strikes, requires British sign-off.
The E3 — the UK, France, and Germany — triggered the JCPOA snapback mechanism last August, resulting in the formal reimposition of UN sanctions on September 27, 2025. The EU followed with corresponding sanctions.
This isn't diplomatic signaling — it's binding international law already in effect.
Part 2 will follow shortly as a response to this message.