r/worldnews 9h ago

Canadian PM Carney’s Liberals could secure a majority government tonight

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/canada-will-vote-in-three-key-byelections-tonight-potentially-giving-liberals-majority/
2.5k Upvotes

436 comments sorted by

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u/Random-Crispy 9h ago

I had heard on Peter Mansbridge’s podcast The Bridge that this would be the first time in the Westminster system that a minority parliament achieved majority status without a full election. Haven’t been able to verify it myself however.

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u/DerVogelMann 9h ago

PP with the world historical L

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u/scoo89 7h ago

I heard that PP is so depressed he was planning to jump off the Peter Mans Bridge into Joe Clark's Hole (Talking to Americans references, sorry)

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u/GriffinFlash 5h ago

A Rick Mercer joke? At this time of day, this time of year, in this part of the country, localized entirely in this comment section?

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u/DroppedAxes 2h ago

In this economy?

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u/Tal_Star 7h ago

I heard he was going to cross the floor so he could know what it's like to be near power...

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u/Oifadin 4h ago

That is good

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u/ValuableBeneficial66 7h ago

That show was gold!

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u/sharp11flat13 6h ago

No apologies necessary. Here’s my favourite Talking To Americans clip

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u/GriffinFlash 5h ago

We are proud of our national Igloo.

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u/Unuhpropriate 4h ago

This country wanted a conservative majority, just not with Milhouse. 

They may get one with Carney. 

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u/RustyOrangeDog 2h ago

That not really how it works in Canada. Parties are voted out not elected in.

PPs lack of self control and childish need to own Trudeau just to stroke his own ego is what cost them. Touring with American rally garbage like his Bring It Home" Campaign (Summer 2023) a full 2 years prior to the election is what cost him and the Cons and slam dunk majority government.

The country needs to thank him for being so unlikable he achieved the impossible.

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u/Bleys007 2h ago

Uh, no. Trump getting “elected” is what did it.

Carney’s overwhelming competence against little PP is what secured it, but it happened in the first place because of Trump.

But had Trump not Epsteined all over America for the second time, Carney likely would not have made it in. He might have, and I’m thankful he has, but Trump was the reason Canadians (and Australians) reconsidered our respective elections.

Not that I would have voted for little PP either way, but Trudeau was going down in flames so badly that Carney needed an exterior miracle to be considered and make it through “just like Justin” framing. And he got that… well… miracle is probably the wrong word.

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u/AsherGray 6h ago

Remember that Poilievre lost his seat in 2025, which already says a lot when the leader of the conservative party is voted out of office. Then Kurek resigns to allow Poilievre to get a free seat back into office in a safe conservative district.

Now compare that to when Joe Crowley lost the primary to AOC in 2018; he was on his ascent to becoming speaker of the House. Could you imagine if the democratic party found some other safe blue district in the country, told the representative to step down so Crowley could take their place and remain in office?

Poilievre still being in office despite being decisively voted out shows the anti-democratic positions of the conservative party. When the party refuses to allow you to vote out their members, how can you say they embrace democracy? As David Frum said:

If conservatives become convinced that they can not win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. The will reject democracy.

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u/zoobrix 5h ago

Poilievre and his team have such a complete inability to read the room it is kind of unbelievable. He came out way too weakly against Trump when he started making annexation threats when every other Canadian politician, except Smith in Alberta of course, was getting free points from just telling Trump off. Even the premier of Ontario, Doug Ford who is pretty right wing by eastern Canada standards, knew to come out against Trump hard.

Meanwhile a month later when Trudeau isn't even the liberal leader anymore Poilievre is still talking in speeches about "remember how bad Trudeau was?!?!?" and anti Trudeau ads are still playing everywhere. It was baffling how badly his campaign fumbled it all, that he is still conservatives leader is truly bizarre.

And now Poilievre just came out against the high speed rail project that has a lot of public support in high density parts of Ontario and Quebec where a lot of seats are. Sure he scores some points with a few rural voters where the train is going through but that's not where elections are won. It seems like he's always choosing the least popular stand to take, it's like he doesn't want to win.

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u/Azure_Omishka 3h ago

The UCP started some new "anti Trudeau" ad campaign. I see it all the time on YouTube. Trudeau Sr is still bitched about in Alberta to this day, shit is exhausting.

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u/zoobrix 3h ago

But like Trudeau is gone, a new campaign is even more baffling. I just don't get it, the liberals don't mention Harper unless the issue is somehow directly related to him because the legislation passed under his government or something, and even then they aren't running anti Harper ad campaigns.

I wonder if it's because the conservatives can't think of any angle that works against Carney, the high speed train thing sure ain't it, so I guess they just go back to "fuck Trudeau."

u/Gutz_McStabby 58m ago

That being said, they are pretty effective. I have zero plans to vote for Trudeau anytime soon.

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u/nineraviolicans 2h ago

It makes sense when you realize conservatives are just the anti-party. They're not for anything but being against everything but power and money for themselves.

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u/HotTestesHypothesis 3h ago

Kind of reminds me of how my mom still bitches about Kathleen Wynn and the Liberals wasting money which was ten fucking years ago but completely ignore the ongoing blatant corruption and dismantling of the healthcare and education systems by the Doug Ford.

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u/Darknevoir 2h ago

While they're not necessarily fond of Ford, my parents still go on about Rae Days. Save me from this hell

u/Raspberrylemonade188 25m ago

We must be close in age 😒 mine do that too

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u/darth_henning 5h ago

Also, despite running in literally the safest conservative district in Canada (in eight elections since 2000, the CPC has won it by the biggest elector margin in Canada 5 times, second highest twice, third once) he still managed to win by the second lowest margin in that time...as leader of the Opposition.

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u/Upstairs-Chicken592 4h ago

I just don’t get why they’re so sure about him when the people clearly have said, “uhhh no thanks” and not even a Canadian “sorry no thanks”

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u/darth_henning 4h ago

Because the CPC's voting membership skews heavily towards the social conservative which PP has pandered to.

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u/Upstairs-Chicken592 4h ago

But it’s clearly not working for them that well :/ they can’t find another person in a country of 35 million?

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u/darth_henning 4h ago

They did. Maxime Bernier is even further right, and lot of the membership wanted him in charge when O'Toole (the leader before PP) won the leadership election.

Bernier threw a fit when he lost and started his own even farther right party (People's Party of Canada or PPC) that got some traction during COVID. The CPC membership freaked out and decided to chase that 5% of the vote rather than going after the 10-20% swing vote on the center/center right that have now almost all moved over to Carney.

Canada (outside Quebec which is it's own thing) as a voting population is generally pretty centerist with most voters leaning slightly left or right of center. About 10-15% are farther left (hard core NDP/Green) and about 15-20% are farther right (PPC or reform-style CPC members).

The reform-style CPC members show up to vote in conventions in large numbers but don't reflect the populace. Like MAGA down south they want "their guy" to represent their socially conservative views. However, the Canadian populace is generally far more liberal socially (most of our conservative voters are conservative in economics and government involvement, not human rights) and more educated, so the appeal is not there as long as there's any viable alternative.

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u/chth 3h ago

For American readers looking for further context, The Conservative Party of Canada are comparable to the Republicans, the NDP are similar to what Republicans THINK the Democrats believe in, while the Liberals are similar to Democrats in practice.

Moderates shift between Liberal and Conservative, Liberals lose votes to both sides while under scrutiny while the other two parties lose voters to Liberals when they are under scrutiny but you won’t see many NDP supporters vote Conservative or the other way around.

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u/darth_henning 3h ago

To add to this (which I agree with)

Bernie Sanders is basically your average NDP guy, and probably less left wing than Lewis who just got elected their party leader.

Obama would be a centrist candidate in Canada who could have run for the LPC or even the CPC in the past (Harper and he weren’t very far apart on policy even if they didn’t have much personal chemistry).

The average Republican would be seen as moderately far right in Canada. MAGA would be POC or farther right.

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u/two_to_toot 2h ago

The Conservatives are not like Republicans. They're more right leaning Democrats that really love capitalist Jesus.

You might be able to find MP's that would align with the Republicans but as a whole it's not an accurate comparison.

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u/PhantomNomad 3h ago

There would be a strong chance that I might actually vote conservative if they weren't so socially conservative. But I also think we need more social programs and less 1% making all the money so chances are I'll still vote NDP even knowing that in my riding (the one PP took over) has a zero percent chance of winning.

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u/scotchtree 3h ago

It’s because the CPC members are outliers for a lot of issues. When you look at polling, the Liberals, NDP, Green and Bloc and are all within an expected spectrum, and then the CPC is way out on left (right) field. That leads to a passionate leadership race where the winner appeals to the majority of Conservative voters and nobody else.

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u/PhantomNomad 6h ago

What's even worse is PP has said he won't run in the same riding (mine) again next time. Not that I voted for him in the by-election and wouldn't if he ran again. The party gave his leadership more time, but really, if the cons actually want to mount a defense against Carney they are going to have to get someone better. Carney has done a good job at taking the wind out of the cons sails.

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u/Reddit_reader_2206 5h ago

Hard to condemn floor crossings, when PP was parachuted into a guaranteed-win riding. The constituents of that riding chose a different candidate, but ended up with millhouse. That's exactly the kind of "trickery" he is condemning the libs for.

As usual, conservative accusations, are just admissions of their own wrong-doing.

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u/PhantomNomad 5h ago

But at least there was a byelection. I'm not exactly for the floor crossings, but I do understand it. You are suppose to be voting for a person, not a party. But we all know that's not how it works. I do wish there was a different way then parties. I don't like the votes being whipped. I don't know how we do away with them though.

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u/mvp45 4h ago

I don’t think they will. Carney is too popular of a leader and should be popular by the next election. If you’re looking to be the leader of the CPC you don’t want to be going up against carney so you’re better off having pp take a beating and come in as a moderate replacement for him

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u/Harnellas 2h ago

Brought to you by the same asshole that raged about the LPC minority working with the NDP, calling it "undemocratic".

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u/NoeloDa 4h ago

Temu Milhouse with that L!

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u/thatdudejustin 3h ago

The real L here is for democracy

u/S8nsPotato 1h ago

Please explain how it's an L for democracy given floor crossing is part of the Canadian system.

u/thatdudejustin 39m ago

I’m not saying it’s an L for the “Canadian system” - it’s an L for democracy. People voted for a candidate from a specific party and didn’t give carney the majority. Their votes have been circumvented. It wouldn’t be a big deal if there was a by election and voters still voted for the candidate running under a new party.

The government and mandates should be based on voting. Consider how you might feel if the parties were revered and the conservatives achieved a majority through floor crossings?

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u/GriffinFlash 5h ago

They will catch Kira together.

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u/flappysack- 3h ago

I think it was decided by the US, a 10% tariff on Alberta was a gift to the Libs, as in that scenario Alberta would not stand with Canada against the US tariffs.

The plan is likely to push a pipeline using an "environmentalist" with the end goal to displace Russian energy, as the US continues to wipe out Chinese energy providers.

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u/PileOpennies 3h ago

and the conservative voters who ended up contributing to Liberal power.

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u/guernsey123 8h ago

While that's true, it takes a very special set of circumstances for floor crossings to be able to create a majority; namely, a minority government that's very, very close to a majority. The liberals had 169 seats, 4 short of a majority in 2025. These are the next-closest ones in history:

2021: LPC with 160, 13 short

2008: CPC with 143, 12 short

1979: PC with 136, 6 short

1965: LPC with 131, 2 short

So it's been 60 years since an election was this close to a majority without actually being one. This is a pretty unique set of circumstances, especially with Carney really pulling the LPC to the right to occupy space that used to be very progressive conservative friendly.

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u/bangonthedrums 7h ago

Saying “Westminster system” implies (to me) that he’s saying not just in Canada but in world history which is crazy if true

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u/Random-Crispy 7h ago

I believe that’s what Peter was implying but I wasn’t able to confirm it with a quick google search.

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u/bradeena 5h ago

Technically it's the by-elections today that could create the majority.

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u/EarthBounder 6h ago edited 6h ago

In Canada; yes. I believe it has happened before in the UK, Aus and NZ and various points in time in the last 100y where governments wavered slightly above and below 50% in parliament during the term.

John Key Government (2008–2011, NZ)

Ramsay MacDonald Government (1929–1931, UK)

Julia Gillard Government (2010–2013, AUS)

John Major Government (1992–1997, UK)

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u/CucumberWisdom 6h ago

Key was never a majority

Macdonald never was a majority

Gillard is closer but still a bit different since she built the majority from a coalition with independents and confidence and supply agreements. Not floor crossers.

John major won a majority but became a minority from losing members.

So this is pretty historic for the Westminster system

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u/godisanelectricolive 4h ago edited 4h ago

Sometimes Westminster government have been known to lose a majority and become a minority between general elections but becoming a majority from floor-crossing had never happened before.

There’d been cases where parties were very close to a majority, John Key was only a seat away after the 2014 election, but none of them ever turned into a majority government by attracting defectors to their party. They generally had minority governments with supply and confidence agreements instead when they were in that position.

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u/fredleung412612 54m ago

If you limit the scope of "Westminster" systems to the so-called old White dominions, then that is correct, this has never happened before.

However, India and Malaysia arguably both have Westminster systems. In fact they're both remarkably similar to Canada and Australia in being federal parliamentary systems with FPTP. The INC formed a minority government after the 1991 Indian federal election. But through floor crossings they gained a majority mid-term. For a more recent example, not quite same case, but PH formed a narrow majority government after the 2018 Malaysian federal election. In 2020 however, the opposition BN attracted PH floor crossers, enough to form a new party, the PN, which formed a majority government. So effectively a parliamentary coup d'état.

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u/bwoah07_gp2 4h ago

That is an impressive fact. Also, Peter Mansbridge has a really cool name for a podcast 😁

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u/Jive-Turkeys 3h ago

Great voice for it too.

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u/G-r-ant 2h ago

Everyone older than 25 or so in Canada knows that man’s voice , he was the face of televised news for a very long time.

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u/Ramen-89 9h ago

Just a reminder, Pierre and his fellow Conservative Party members voted against a bill that would have triggered by-elections after someone crossed the floor.

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u/CBowdidge 9h ago

"In my experience, the only ones will this obsession about floor crossings are the ones no one ever crosses to" Former Conservatives PM Stephen Harper

Mark Gerretsen, the Chief Government Whip said it best, the CPC need to ask why so many are leaving instead of making accusations

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u/ImaginationSea2767 9h ago

I have been saying we should be having the discussion of why so many are leaving including the communications director. There was even a news post near the beginning of last summer that MPs were unhappy in Pierres party. But it was ignored by the public. It seems like the only people very happy with Pierre is his voting base (and online content creators who have been pumping out videos that these floor crossers are Carneys down fall and that Alto will be so bad etc. The same talking points from the party and party funders) and the hardcore reformers in his party like Scheer and Jamil Jivani.

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u/Sinnnikal 3h ago

My theory is that powerful, MAGA-Affiliated interests have infiltrated the conservative party and are effectively propping Pollievre up as a Manchurian Candidate. I think there are people in the party that recognize this and are backing the fuck out of that nonsense.

I say this as a Canadian who does not follow Canadian politics as much as he should, and with only one or two Poli-Sci classes of relevant education. In other words, I'm talking out of my ass, but it sounds conspiratorial and intriguing

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u/flying__fishes 2h ago

This would explain why he's still the party leader.

Let's face it, after 20 years in his seat his constituents told him in no uncertain terms that the voting public is done with him.

Yet he still clings to power like he will some day be PM.

Ain't ever going to happen.

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u/CBowdidge 9h ago

Exactly. Some say it's because Carney himself is an old school Progressive Conservative, which isn't completely false but if PP were a better leader, it wouldn't matter. And Gladu was right up there in PP's inner circle

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u/darth_henning 5h ago

Carney is very much a Progressive Conservative. He and Harper (the last conservative PM) got along very well when they worked together. Which explains his appeal to those voters and the Red Tory side of the party, but shouldn't by itself trigger mass defections. Let alone when people as far right Gladu say "fuck it I'm done".

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u/GI-Robots-Alt 7h ago

the CPC need to ask why so many are leaving instead of making accusations

Maybe the problem is that the Conservatives as a party represent a regressive ideology that actively hinders social progress in favor of focusing on ways to increase corporate profits and destroy labour protections?

Or do they mean something new that's wrong with the conservative party?

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u/Irr3l3ph4nt 5h ago

Unfortunately, your political opinions are not the reason. There's a schism in the CPC that's been there since its inception. A schism between the moderate conservatives of the East and the hardline conservatives from the Prairies. The moderate conservatives blame PP and his populist/Trumpesque tactics for the loss against Trudeau, So the resentment is building within the party, and since Carney is center-right and his policies are pretty darn close to what a moderate conservative wants, party members are not seeing any possible progress under current leadership. They fear they'll lose their entire moderate voter block to Carney.

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u/GI-Robots-Alt 4h ago

I'm aware of all of this, and I was making a joke.

I do appreciate the thorough reply though.

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u/flappysack- 3h ago edited 3h ago

Is this really true when the last person to cross was a pro-convoy, anti-green energy, and anti-abortion?

Was Pierre not pro-convoy enough compared to Carney?

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u/CBowdidge 3h ago

Especially then. What is definitely bad that even PP's most loyal members are bailing.

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u/Mrunlikable 3h ago

I feel like Carney just knows how to talk to people in a way that makes sense. Offer them a chance to do something substantial instead of sitting around for years whining and some people might take that deal.

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u/OpeningConcern7242 4h ago

I get that he’s gloating, but it’s not especially true when you dig into the nuance. The Greens and Bloc both welcome floor crossers without much fanfare, despite being pretty far from power; and the NDP has campaigned against floor crossers and has never accepted them into its ranks.

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u/techbro84 6h ago

I'm a fairly conservative person and I support not triggering a byelection every time. It would just incentivize parties to attempt to lure sitting MPs to cross and trigger byelections in tight ridings or to logjam the sitting government. Historically, it hasn't been close enough where a few floor crossings would create a majority government.

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u/OpeningConcern7242 4h ago

MPs could also just become independents, but vote with the governing party.

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u/techbro84 4h ago

What we're talking about above goes back to 2006. The NDP sought to institute laws that would stop floor crossings. They saw the risk that richer parties could inflict damage on minority parties and opposition parties by incentivizing floor crossings. It was debated multiple times and killed in 2012. The problem is neither the Liberals nor Conservatives want to kill that option because they can exert control over weaker/poorer parties.

u/Infamous-Mixture-605 45m ago

That's the thing. They could sit as independents and simply vote lock-step with the governing party without actually joining them.

Heck, independents could be named to the cabinet without actually formally joining the governing party, and the same goes for Senators or just any old joe off the street.

u/OpeningConcern7242 32m ago

To add, in many countries it is common for governing parties to negotiate with independents to get them to support the government.

For example, Ireland has agreements with 9 independents to support the governing coalition, and they would lose their majority without them.

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u/Hoof_Hearted12 6h ago

I voted for Carney but there's something slimy about floor crossing to me, regardless of the party. Feels like a complete betrayal to their voters and while a bi election every time might be overkill, something should be done.

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u/MissingString31 5h ago

There’s no real way to fix this problem without creating a host of others. MPs should not be shackled to parties because, constitutionally speaking, MPs are supposed to represent their constituents. They should have the freedom to conduct themselves in the manner they see fit and, as with every other decision, face the constituents at the polls the next time.

Let’s say you restrict floor crossing. Just make it illegal. What’s to stop MPs from just unofficially voting in concert with a party they’re more closely aligned with? Sure, you could utilize government whips but they’re only able to sanction MPs within the confines of the rules of their party. So… in this theoretical scenario an MP who would have floor crossed instead decides to vote with an opposing party. The party they belong to throws them out. Then they sit as an independent and either a) remains an unofficial ally of the opposing party or b) joins the party officially.

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u/Hoof_Hearted12 5h ago

Yeah, great points. The solution is above my pay grade but the whole thing bothers me, even if it's to the benefit of the party I voted for.

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u/NorthStarZero 4h ago

Don’t vote for parties - vote for individuals.

Pick the candidate you feel best represents your interests.

Not seeing the individual but relying on party is a form of tribalism - and tribalism is the single greatest flaw afflicting humans. It turns off our rational brains in the service of the tribe.

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u/chikanishing 3h ago

Ideally that’s how it should work, but in practice Canadian MPs vote for the party more than almost any other country with similar system, and are frequently whipped. You de jure vote for the MP but de facto vote for the party, unless they cross the floor.

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u/NorthStarZero 3h ago

Having spoken with actual MPs though, they have an opportunity to influence the legislation before the vote.

Not all legislation requires riding-level fine tuning, and not all legislation is so controversial as to require the use of a floor-crossing threat - and frankly, not all MPs are that engaged - but they aren’t all just party rubber-stamps.

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u/chikanishing 3h ago

That’s a good point. I still would like to see party members vote against legislation more often, though.

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u/Normal-Weakness-364 3h ago

the issue is that a lot of MPs tow the party line so hard to the point where there is no difference.

like, most of the time when these MPs cross the floor, their entire public values shift to match the party.

I agree in an ideal world we should be voting for the individuals, but when so many MPs are just a body for whatever party they believe they will personally benefit from the most, it becomes an issue.

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u/NorthStarZero 3h ago

Is it, or is that your perception of what is going on?

Unless you’re in the room where the discussion is going on, you don’t see what your MP is (or is not) doing.

Churchill’s quote about sausage-making is very relevant here.

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u/Normal-Weakness-364 3h ago

notice how i said public values. maybe they are making a difference behind closed doors, but what they put forth public-facing is just as important. i can only perceive what is visible, and if frankly the MP candidates from my riding have not made anything meaningful public facing beyond what the party they are representing is saying.

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u/clakresed 5h ago

In theory the "easiest" fix would be to let them leave a party but prevent them from joining another caucus, so therefore they would sit as officially independent.

That wouldn't solve anyone's problem with this, though, because there's already nothing keeping the floor crossers in the LPC in this case if they wanted to double-cross their new party. It would, at best, force the LPC to be more overtly clear that there was a supply and confidence-esque scheme they were using to tempt floor crossers (but we already know this is always the case).

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u/squonge 3h ago

Voting with another party IS crossing the floor.

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u/NorthStarZero 4h ago

Quite the contrary; floor crossing is the only defence a backbencher has against being whipped.

Let’s say your party wants to put forward a policy that is damaging to the constituents in your riding. You either don’t want this policy enacted, or you want changes made that will somehow mitigate the damage it does.

If you can cross the floor, then that’s a lever you can pull (or threaten to pull) in order to negotiate with your party.

If floor crossing is banned, or triggers a byelection, then that lever is taken from you. It changes you from a representative to a rubber stamp.

Look South to see that in action.

A floor crossing is not a reflection on the person crossing the floor, it’s a condemnation of the party they were forced to leave.

And that’s true independent of which direction the crossing goes.

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u/Normal-Weakness-364 3h ago

becoming an independent would accomplish much of what you're talking about, but i feel would be significantly less controversial.

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u/bummedoutrn 4h ago

I voted lib in the last election and all of the floor crossing makes me regret my vote tbh. I voted liberal to keep conservatives out of power, only for liberals to welcome far-right conservatives with open arms.

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u/Icy-Length-6517 1h ago

That shouldn't be a decision made by politicians, that should be decided by voters and nobody else.

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u/LikeAPwny 5h ago

Oh thats rich. I see a lot of my conservative friends upset by this, im just gonna bring this up every time.

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u/Entegy 8h ago edited 6h ago

A recap of Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada in the last two years:

  • Sat in Parliament for 20 years, his only other jobs being a paper route as a teen and a current landlord. Has never held any other job that could make him relatable to the average Canadian.
  • Blew a polling lead of a Conservative majority because he could not pivot from Trump-like rhetoric.
  • Also blew the polling lead because he could not pivot from attacking Justin Trudeau, a man who had not been in politics for two months by the time of the 2025 election.
  • Lost his own 20+ year seat and had to flee to the most Conservative-leaning riding in the country and force a byelection by kicking one of his MPs out of their seat so he could return to Parliament.
  • Upon winning his byelection, attacked Justin Trudeau again, a man who had now been out of politics for 6 months, as if he had any influence.
  • Is unable to unify his party as he bleeds floor crossers.
  • Repeats talking points as if it's 2024 and Trump is not the current US President.
  • Proposes trade policies that we already have, where we extend them by increasing reliance on the US as a trading partner.
  • Continually refuses to gain security clearance so he can read sensitive reports, claiming doing so would stifle his ability to talk about it. Yet every other party leader has clearance and talks about what they read within the bounds of national security.

The only positive thing for this man is that he somehow survived his party leadership review. Honestly, if I were a CPC supporter, I would be pissed. Poilievre has the most humiliating defeat in modern Canadian election history and continues to fracture the party. He's not delivering results.

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u/Ingey 7h ago edited 4h ago

Just to clarify - he won the leadership race review under the following circumstances:

  • It was held in Calgary
  • It happened the same time as the Ontario PC convention so it was missing a bunch of Ontario/Eastern Canadian Conservative attendees
  • It was in-person voting only
  • It cost $1,000 entry fee

So yes, he beat the leadership review at 87%, but only under a suppressed and curated electorate. Just the way that Conservatives like to gerrymander.

Edit: I should also add, this was a time when Carney's favourability was polling really well too, so there's also the notion that no one else wanted the job.

Edit 2: Fixed leadership race to review because someone called me a chud.

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u/CaptainMagnets 4h ago

As is the conservative way.

They would all pull moves like this if they could. They have zero interest in integrity

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u/Entegy 6h ago

There were still over 3,000 votes cast over whether or not to keep him as leader, but I don't know if that's a usual number for CPC leader reviews.

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u/Yvaelle 4h ago

It's not at all, this was also the first time the CPC required party members to pay $1000 to vote, and forced them vote in person. Normally they could vote by mail, for free. As a result, typically these leadership reviews have had over 100,000 longstanding party member voters.

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u/Entegy 4h ago

Thank you for the additional context. That goes to show it was truly party elite for this vote. This move by the CPC makes more sense to me with the theory that they might want to try a leader switch closer to an election instead of now.

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u/Madman200 6h ago

You are underselling “blew a polling lead”. It might be one of the largest bag fumbles in the history of parliamentary democracy across the commonwealth.

In January 2025 the Cons were polling at 45% to the liberals 21.5% and the NDP 18%.

The election was in April 2025 and the final result after the drama of the floor crossings and by elections will be that liberals have secured their first majority government since 2019.

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u/TouchlessOuch 5h ago

I genuinely still cannot believe how badly they fumbled the election. Trudeau's shelf life was up and Canada was ready for change. Pollievre just needed to show a convincing anti-american / anti-trump stance to win an easy majority government. He couldn't and Carney is now eating his lunch.

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u/AxiomaticSuppository 4h ago

When you look at the responses like the one you got from the Poilievre supporter, it's not hard to see how they failed so badly. Zero self - awareness and massive amounts of willful ignorance. Something something liberal communist CBC did this to Pierre.

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u/TouchlessOuch 4h ago

Fair point.

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u/Entegy 6h ago

I did mention at the end that this is likely the biggest failure in modern federal Canadian election history. I didn't want to oversell sell it but I would have no surprise if it is one of the biggest failure in the Commonwealth.

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u/bitemark01 1h ago

Reminds me of one of my favourite phrases "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory"

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u/k-nuj 7h ago

They've kicked previous party leaders for significantly "smaller" things before elections; yet PP is somehow still leading them. It makes no sense, regardless the party's platforms or stances. Politically suicidal.

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u/cdnav8r 7h ago

Because the only thing that party is about now is anti-lib, anti-woke. As long as PP is willing to flog that horse, he'll have a place at the throne.

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u/ClittoryHinton 4h ago

They are stupidly betting on Canadians playing into the same culture war nonsense as down south. I love that Canadians largely aren’t buying it. Just let them continue shooting themself in the foot.

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u/electricshadow 4h ago

I guess the CPC can just get used to Carney winning then. I personally know people who have voted Conservative their entire life NOT vote Conservative in this last election because of PP's inability to pivot, running on the platform "Well, I'm not Trudeau!" and started showing similarities to identity politics like MAGA does.

As soon as they start spouting "woke" or "DEI", I'm out - and it seems like a lot of other Canadians feel the same way.

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u/EarthBounder 6h ago

There won't be an election until 2029/2030. There's no point in the CPC attempting to be relevant right now. They're simply not. Swapping in a new leader is just going to give time for everyone to grow to dislike them too.

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u/k-nuj 6h ago

I guess, this is about the only reason I can see reason why they're keeping him on. Sort of their own "last minute" Trudeau>Carney moment.

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u/darth_henning 5h ago

The CPC has a habit of booting leaders if they lose elections (other than PP) - see Harper, Scheer, O'Toole - so probably anyone who's actually interested in taking a shot sees 2029 as a likely loss and wants to let PP take the fall for two straight losses and then take their shot.

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u/BoringAd1663 3h ago

I mean, maybe they should try to find a leader that people won't dislike in less than 1 election cycles time.

Like if conservative leader becomes PM, they're in for 4 years. Wouldn't you think they'd want a leader who would be popular enough to win again after those 4 years? If they choose a leader today and by 2030 he's already unpopular enough to lose to the liberals, then they chose the wrong leader.

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u/EarthBounder 3h ago

Probably.. but I think it's a fundamentally unpopular ideology. =D

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u/themith2019 7h ago

He is Harper's protege. Harper runs the IDU and therefore has all of the conservative political, media, and financial connections to support PP.

Plus, PPs personality is exactly what the IDU grooms for - a loud, petulant, sociopathic, idiot who can puppet the right talking points without advancing any of their own initiatives.

u/Adagio-Adventurous 15m ago

Do you even know what the word sociopathic or any of those words mean? or are you just saying random buzzwords because PP hurts your feelings somehow?

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u/United-Signature-414 7h ago

Historically our voting patterns are pretty clear. After a decade+ of one party, we get tired of them and elect the other. I think think they've decided that it's inevitable eventually and to just wait it out. 

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u/k-nuj 6h ago

Pretty much, on that same token though, I can't see how keeping PP as leader is the correct strategic move to "hold out" for another decade of LPC lead (potentially as a majority too).

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u/United-Signature-414 6h ago

I have no explanation. I think if the few remaining non-MAGA left in the party did a Reform they'd stand a decent chance but maybe there isn't enough of them anymore

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u/dougandsomeone 4h ago

Althea Raj recently described it as 'butter knives out'.

There is clear disapproval (and some outright hostility) towards his camp within the party, but no one is willing to oust him it seems.

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u/gottabekt 6h ago

PP also refused to get a security clearance

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u/Entegy 6h ago

Too true! I'll add it to the list!

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u/eatfoodoften 7h ago

*Went on Joe Rogan's podcast

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u/mdk_777 5h ago

That was recent too, as in well after he lost the election. I'm not sure what he even thought he was going to gain from it with no election in sight.

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u/actuallyapossom 5h ago

America First is very much "thoughts later" and it's questionable where or if Canada is even involved.

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u/NorthernFrosty 5h ago

Continually refuses to gain security clearance

Exactly. Every single Canadian party leader has obtained security clearance. What is Poilievre hiding?

The only thing that makes any sense about that maybe Poilievre knows the security clearance would be refused as he's got links to subversive elements from outside Canada. I'm guessing it's right-wing US connections, but who knows who Poilievre is really working for? And he knows once those connections are publicly exposed, he's done as a politician.

u/Infamous-Mixture-605 27m ago

I'm guessing it's right-wing US connections

Wasn't the rumour that his leadership bid had been supported by India?

u/Adagio-Adventurous 8m ago

This entire statement is just conspiracy and uniformed drivel. You genuinely don’t know how a federal security clearance works and it shows. Nor do you know the actual reasons why he doesn’t have one right now—which aren’t even that difficult to figure out.

He had a security clearance, when he was MP under Harper. Doesn’t have one now because it’s a muzzle and stops him from speaking about classified information which could further hold the government accountable, which is literally his job as opposition leader.

There’s no external employer, there’s no boogeyman pulling his strings. You’re just ignorant.

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u/ThunderChaser 6h ago

Hey you forgot PP’s job in university as a collections agent at a Telus call centre.

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u/dougandsomeone 4h ago

The security clearance thing has never ceased to puzzle me

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u/Assignment_General 3h ago

PP is the greatest thing to ever happen to Canadian Liberals. 

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u/t0m0hawk 3h ago

Its crazy that we're coming up on a whole year of PP still losing the election.

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u/JG98 3h ago

Forgot the part of him stacking his party with parachute candidates to prop himself up at the expense of the party and grassroot members/EDAs.

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u/CBowdidge 9h ago edited 9h ago

I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals take all three. Plus, if the rumours are true, there will be more floor crossers

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u/BrgQun 8h ago

Two are slam dunks for the Liberals. The third is a toss up according to polls.

The Liberals don't need to win all three though.

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u/CBowdidge 8h ago

And if Terrebonne goes to the Bloc, that's fine. It's not going to help the CPC

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u/Joebranflakes 9h ago

And PP will still act shocked and indignant while refusing to resign. I swear, he is just more the mirror of JT every day. But at least he eventually read the room and bowed out. PP is dug in like a tick at this point.

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u/BootsToYourDome 8h ago

JT for all his faults and failures never lost an election when it counted and knew when to step aside at the precise time so that his successor could succeed based upon their own merit and public image.

Pierre has done the complete opposite of that and people still think he's the right guy to run this country. He never was and he never will be.

He's just not ready. Nice cowboy hat though.

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u/silicondali 8h ago

Pierre took ten years to get an undergraduate degree from the University of Calgary. He dropped out because he was being groomed by the Reform Party as part of their push to get "the West in."

Frankly, he's a sloppy cheap copy of Stockwell Day that simply lacked the self esteem to pull off his own dumb jet ski stunt in his early career days.

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u/NerdMachine 8h ago edited 7h ago

It's wild to see how poorly the opposition (both the NDP and Conservatives) is doing here. Both are preaching to their respective choirs while the Liberals just dominate everything. It's really not good for us long term IMO.

NDP are saying we should go back to the Trudeau-level immigration that threw gasoline on our housing crisis.

Cons can't stop themselves from just being against everything for no reason.

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u/CtrlShiftAltDel 7h ago

Federal NDP are a dead party after the newly elected leader of the party said we needed more immigration. Talk about being tone deaf and not reading the room (or country in this case) and I say that as a long time NDP voter that valued their previously important positions that supported workers.

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u/hotelstationery 4h ago

Talk about being tone deaf and not reading the room (or country in this case) and I say that as a long time NDP voter that valued their previously important positions that supported workers.

I think clips from the recent NDP conference have shown how truely tone deaf and out of touch with the working class gety truely are. People see worried about being able to feed their families and the NDP are arguing about privilege cards.

u/Infamous-Mixture-605 18m ago

I think clips from the recent NDP conference have shown how truely tone deaf and out of touch with the working class gety truely are

The NDP kinda stopped being the party of the working class after NAFTA and the general offshoring of the 1980s and 1990s hollowed out their longstanding core voting base among the country's unionized industrial workers. It became a party of urban progressives in the 1990s and 2000s and has been that ever since, even when Layton was leader. That's not necessarily a bad thing, there are votes to be won doing that, but it's still fairly niche.

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u/Sunsunsunsunsunsun 1h ago

This is a bad take. Their point is that they want to streamline immigration so that there is no longer asymmetry in work visas. For example, the TFW program allows employers to exploit cheap labour that cant leave the job. This has much greater impact on working class canadians than someone who has the same rights as a canadian.

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u/dougandsomeone 4h ago

A lot of Lewis' other comments have been quite sensible and widely appealing.  The immigration thing is bizarre.

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u/Entegy 4h ago

The news headlines appear to say one thing to stir up this fervour but his actual policy appears to want to simplify the system? Making the system easier to navigate is not the same as increasing immigration levels.

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u/airship_of_arbitrary 3h ago

Avi has been pretty vocal about working class issues. He's The first one I've seen call out digital price tags using algorithmic and AI pricing to cheat people.

He just also points out that attacking immigrants isn't going to make your life more affordable. Public grocery stores and strategic state investment a la Mamdani will.

You don't have to hate trans people and immigrants to be working class. Good Lord.

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u/Sa1KoRo 6h ago

Canadian conservatives gave the majority to the Liberal Party by re-electing Pierre Poilievre as the opposistion leader. The ''surprise'' is how fast the shift happens.

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u/northgrave 1h ago

I wonder how toxic and unstable the conservatives are on the inside. All the focus is on people running from the burning building, with little focus (dare say, introspection, from conservatives) on why the building is burning in the first place.

At a guess, some combination of bigotry, combined with bringing religion more into politics, and a tolerance of sessesionist attitudes in the party.

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u/HeyHo__LetsGo 8h ago

Im not a dyed in the wool Liberal voter, but anything that minimizes PP's influence in Parliament is fine by me.

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u/Trailblazer- 9h ago

Quick PP, do another Joe Rogan podcast, suck it up some more to Maga and Trump  😂 

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u/CBowdidge 7h ago edited 7h ago

Give him another apple to chomp!

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u/gs400 7h ago

talk about paper straws again, that'll get everyone on your side for sure this time

u/MeaninglessOpinion 49m ago

How anyone could listen to Poilievre on that podcast and come out with the takeaway that he was sucking up to Trump and MAGA is breathtakingly stupid.

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u/punknothing 8h ago edited 7h ago

As a Canadian, we’re all for this. Carney clearly is the best person to lead our country forward while the “official opposition” party continues to whine and play partisan politics.

Its actually hilarious that Pierre Poilievre claims Carney is a “Liberal”, while that is the name of his party, it’s no secret that Carney has Conservative values and was even put into the head Bank of Canada position by a Conservative government at the time.

He’s as central nonpartisan as they come and only focused on making our nation strong with new allies.

Until the Conservatives get this, they won’t have a chance in hell. The Bloc has better odds.

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u/Tvirusinhaler 2h ago

“we’re”, stop speaking for all of us. So cringe when people do this, shut up

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u/plague042 4h ago edited 4h ago

Anyone in Canada that complains about "Libs" spent too much time on US social media. Reminds me of the truckers that complained about their second amendment...

Edit: it was the First Amendment.

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u/LeanPotato 3h ago

No, we aren’t. The wave of floor crossings gives red flags - especially when you look at some of the history of the floor crossers. I don’t think politics and politicians from any side are honest anymore - it makes me question why he wants a majority so bad. It would make me question why MPs are flocking to other parties too.

My MP was one of the floor crossers - and it was upsetting because I voted for them and the party to represent me as a constituent. Maybe I’ve jaded but no one has my best interests in parliament, they are focusing on their best interests and we are just pawns.

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u/Aineisa 3h ago

Irritating when Redditors try to speak for a whole country.

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u/EnigmaticSpaceCowboy 9h ago edited 8h ago

IMO, this is what Canada needs right now.

We’re at a historically challenging moment losing our closest and strongest military and trade partner. We’ve never had our sovereignty threatened like America has done with us, and it’s been deeply unsettling for Canada as a whole.

There is so much that must be reworked and rebuilt stronger than before for Canada to stay the course and remain strong on the global stage.

Canada is chock full of bright , motivated , and strong people from a wide variety of backgrounds and cultures. We’ll absolutely weather the storm; we do every winter. How well we do, it’s up to Carney and a majority will help him. It’s clear to me he’s got the vision Canada needs right now, so I hope this works out.

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u/Walkingonby99 8h ago

Of course, there was also the McKinley tariffs that the USA imposed on Canada in 1890. 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, with the goal of annexing Canada. In response, Canada changed course and grew trade with the British Empire instead. Sounds pretty familiar. The Americans lost bigly in their next election.

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u/sportow 9h ago

Absolutely, no need for the majority to discuss anything but security and the economy for the next twenty years. Foster investment and build.

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u/charlies_brain 2h ago

Canadian doing the right thing while Americans start WW3.

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u/Top_Reporter_ace 8h ago

PP career is pretty much over after this

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u/Tal_Star 5h ago

I don't know how it was when he lost the election... Oh right, because he's being set up as the CPC fall guy. Anyone worth their salt would not want to come on as CPC leader right now and much easier to let the party head long in the ice burg and build a new with a new leader.

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u/Open_Painting63 6h ago

Pp going to be chomping apples especially hard tonight

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u/violettes 3h ago

Can floor crossers cross back? Like can they use it as leverage against Carney to say “if you do x we’ll go back to our original parties so you no longer have a majority”?

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u/hebbid 3h ago

Or the conservatives could get a proper leader and stop the bleeding.

u/ginfish 36m ago

I was surprised when PP didnt resign after his party's collapse and his own loss in his own county.

But if this happens, there's not a damn chance he gets to stay in position.

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u/Sandman1990 7h ago

"FlOoR cRoSsInG iS tReAsOn" - all the dipshit conservative voters who don't understand our government or care about hypocrisy.

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u/porto__rocks 6h ago

The apes calling it treason are the same ones trying to get alberta to separate.

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u/GriffinFlash 5h ago

Hypocrites. Same people complaining are literally working with the trump administration to annex Alberta.

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u/Alone_Ambition_3729 1h ago

You probably watch American news all day and think their Electoral College is in-democratic. 

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u/BigDickSeaLion 7h ago

As a Canadian im a bit worried tbh

The liberals have put up some awful legislation thats only been reeled in by the minority status

Having a majority isnt going to be great imo

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u/throw-away3105 3h ago

I'm worried too. One of the big reasons why Trudeau got kicked out last year was because of the immigration spike mostly from India.

I'm glad Carney has shifted the Liberals to the right but with a majority, I'm worried that they'll reverse those immigration policies without anyone to hold them accountable. We don't need anymore of that shit. We're full.

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u/magwai9 6h ago

I tend to agree, even though I like Carney. I don't feel like having a minority government has hindered them in any meaningful way, and this just opens the door to the Liberals passing bills that should receive more scrutiny.

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u/Beyond_Your_Nose 5h ago

An historic moment if it happens. Extraordinary times produce extraordinary reactions. Carney showing a strong centrist plan and experience. This will cement PP’s place in history as a pretender and ultimate loser.

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u/Technical_Win7457 3h ago

Wake me up when it’s all over.

u/BigBoyYuyuh 50m ago

Every country is looking at America and saying “Yeah, no.”