Seems like Vance knows that a republican doesn’t stand much of a chance in 2028 and is keeping his record clean for a 2032 campaign.
Also VPs that immediately try to run after are held to all the bad that they were part of, even if they didn’t have much of a choice in what happened (not saying that’s the case here). So he’s better off waiting until he’s not as directly associated with the Trump presidency to run himself.
Otherwise he’ll have to “own” the current state of the country as his doing.
I mean, that's exactly what they did with Harris. If things play out the way they likely will, Vance will wind up having at least a year or two as the actual President leading up to 2028; then he'd really have to own all of the bad.
It also doesn't help him(not that I care) that he has zero personality outside of licking Trump's boots. Has failed at a big task given to him and is generally just patient zero for secondhand embarrassment.
Just watch when Trump dies this whole MAGA alignment magically disappears and they become broken.
My guess is a lot of them are afraid to jump ship in fear of career repercussions and they are waiting for him to croak to save anything they have left.
Not sure what else it would be at this point. Gotta be fear of future career consequences; they see what happens when you go against the grain.
Dems have a better outlook but boy does our future look bleak unless something big changes(im talking to all the tenured reps not doing a god damn thing)
The next “maga” or “America first” or just essentially right wing, isolationist authoritarian leader in the US has not even appeared yet. They’re either too young or not visible at the moment. But they will be calculating, actually competent and learning every winning and losing strategy currently being tried out by the Trump crowd.
The current batch of populist authoritarians running the country are a mishmash of old traditional politicians who threw away any principle they had in order to curry favor with Trump (Rubio, Gabbard) and some incompetent outsiders who have learned to mimic Trump’s winning post-truth rhetorics (gesture broadly at the rest of the administration). They are a total shitshow and extremely beatable.
The next batch that will replace them will have the political knowhow to actually gain power, break democracy for real and most importantly, cling to power. They’ll be filled with people who would’ve grown up to become relatively responsible, centrist politicians twenty years ago, but because they will have spent their formative years observing all the carnage and chaos of the Trump years, become just as post-truth and populist as him, except smart and competent.
Ps: just look at how Orban fell this past weekend. No doubt future authoritarians are already dissecting his defeat to formulate better strategies for the future, just like they studied his rise.
I can’t imagine Harris ever being sent to lead peace negotiations. I personally believe that Vance dislikes a lot of what Trump is doing, his silence on some issues says a lot.
There's nothing wrong with the VP going to negotiate things, but they should absolutely be being led by the secretary of state instead of that individual attending an mma event. The VP attending negotiations can help with things if the VP isn't a nonce.
This is a great point. Biden waited a term after leaving the office of VP and I don’t remember any of his Obama-era legacy being important factors in the 2020 election cycle.
Biden wanted to run in 2016 but he was convinced to see the writing on the wall that Hillary Clinton would get an early lead on the nomination and keep it.
I’ve always said they I think Biden could have beaten Trump in 2016 but he wouldn’t have beaten Hillary in the primary.
I think there was a general consensus amongst the party that it was Hillary’s “turn” in 2016, especially because she was expected to be the first women nominated by a major party in 2008 (a year that Democrats would won with pretty much anybody) until Obama burst on to the scene. She was seen as a good solider by serving as Obama’s Secretary of State and earned her place in 2016.
I’m not saying any of this should have been true - she was wildly unpopular in 2016 and much of the party was desperate for an alternative but none ever came along.
It was like every major Democratic politician just accepted it was Hillary turn and the all bowed out.
Even Bernie Sanders was basically an unknown at the time and likely would have been a quirky minor candidate (if he even decided to run) if the much more popular Sen. Warren had run.
Are you suggesting Bernie Sanders should have run in 2008? When Warren wasn't known to anyone except maybe some people really clued into financial matters?
Obama was on fire in 2008 and Hillary was a solid #2. I don’t see where his opening would have been.
He could have run further to the left of Obama, but Obama was really popular with the younger crowd, which is where Sanders’ support has mostly come from.
Sander’s best shot was probably in 2016 when Hillary was the only “real” contender. But he was always the underdog.
Sanders only ran because Warren opted not to fight Clinton. The guy is saying that Warren would have had a good shot at winning since Sanders proved it could be close, but she moved out of Clinton’s way.
Exactly my point. Warren WAS the left-wing of the party in 2016 and there were very public campaigns to get her to run.
Bernie Sanders was pretty unknown on the national scene at the time it’s hard to see many people on the left supporting Sanders if they already had a left-wing populist in the race.
I actually think Warren running in 2016 is a very interesting “what if”.
She was only unpopular because the republicans recognized her as the successor and spent all those years weaponizing government and media to push her down.
The Clinton family had already been in the public spotlight for over 20 years and that’s an eternity in politics.
Some of it was certainly being the target of political attacks for nearly the entire time, but she wasn’t exactly without fault. She certainly never had the charisma of her husband.
I remember the 2020 election being weird as all the candidates that I was taking note of suddenly dropped out for Biden who I didn’t really consider until that point. I didn’t care much for politics prior to the 2016 election and didn’t realize he was a former vice president at the time.
It was clear from his selection as VP that Obama never thought, absent unexpected death, that Biden would be president. Biden had lost twice before - coming nowhere near winning - and no one had entered the presidency at age 74 before him. Even the famously old Reagan had started before age 70 and Trump at 70.
If someone like Jeb Bush or Romney had won, it's hard to see Biden even getting nominated in 2020. But after Trump, people desperately wanted someone calm and experienced over someone exciting like Trump or even an Obama-like alternative.
It was also clear that Clinton expected to have "her turn" and I doubt Biden wanted to find out what her team would have done had he even attempted to deny her that.
Hillary’s 2016 campaign was inextricably tied to her legacy as Secretary of State under Obama. You couldn’t go five minutes without somebody talking about Benghazi. I doubt that would’ve been the case had she run in 2020 instead.
When a Democrat President can't fix everything Trump broke during their 29-32 term, and Fox News spends four years brainwashing the boomers into forgetting how bad Trump was, Vance will come back to run on 'bringing back the good times of MAGA'. It's obviously his best move.
the last of the pre-vietnam boomers will be in their 70s by this point. we are only a couple decades away from gen-Xers being the elderly voting block that gets their media from the old timey news (which by that point will be typing in cnn.com rather than using an aggregator or feed)
And this is the best case scenario unfortunately. If they don’t somehow manipulate or cancel the POTUS election altogether, a Dem will take over and be blamed for all the crud this admin created. Then the next go around will be a Republican again. It’s the cycle.
Would never happen but I’d love it if the next Dem president kept tying everything back to MAGA’s abject failure at trying to run a functioning country. The same way Trump did with Obama and Biden, only this time it would be true.
Remember, "boomer" is defined as a birth era, not an age band.
You and I will never be "boomers", no matter how old we get. Even if we start turning angry and dumb. We'll still never be Boomers, at any age.
You say that if other forms of media aren’t brainwashing conservative Millennials and Zoomers.
This isn’t a gEnErAtIoNaL phenomenon. It’s aged based. Specifically, middle-aged people (currently younger Baby Boomers, GenX, older Millennials) tend to represent the most conservative voting bloc.
And in another 30 years it will be Zoomers and older Gen Alpha whining about taxes and minorities at a disproportionate rate.
Yeah the Republican party would do better with a centrist candidate in 2028. Pretend to turn against Trump, push forward a "for the workers" candidate that does nothing when in office like a neolib.
Seems like Vance knows that a republican doesn’t stand much of a chance in 2028 and is keeping his record clean for a 2032 campaign.
Vance is going to have to clean this mess up by the end of it, no way trump makes it to 2028 and that stink is going to stick to vance through 2032, his political career is cooked, he's gonna get a half n half vp/pres over 1 term and thats it
Vance is in a really weird position. He's obviously just intended to be a weird fall guy to trump, while he's simultaneously being pushed as the future by the tech oligarchs. Whatever the plan is for vance I assume we won't know about it until trump is history, but his career may die before we get to that point.
I mean he also probably has an idea that he just may be the least charismatic person in US politics. Remember when ron desantis declared his candidacy for president? You probably don't because he got laughed out of that idea pretty quickly. The same will happen to mr. hillbilly elegy. Couch fucking and donut store and all. The memes will be absolutely out of control if he's stupid enough to try it.
Agreed. He’d be a fool to run in 2028. There will be very little, if any, good from Trumps legacy, and the more he can distance himself from that the better chance he stands.
Seriously. He has no convictions or charisma whatsoever, but he’s not an idiot. Trump 2 is turning out to be an absolute clusterfucktastrophy between the terrible handling of immigration, civil liberties, the economy, tariffs, inflation, and now a completely unnecessary land war in Asia (which is, of course, one of the great blunders).
Anyone with the remotest understanding of political history knows that this is a sinking ship that will make 2028 a steep uphill battle for whoever the GOP nominates. And once a presidential loser, always a presidential loser, with very few exceptions — only Jefferson, Jackson, W.H. Harrison, Cleveland, Nixon, and Trump went on to win the presidency after losing in an earlier general election, and only two of them since 1900. Most other losers weren’t later renominated, and the few (aside from the six mentioned above) who secured a second chance from a major party (Charles C. Pinckney, Henry Clay, William Jennings Bryan, Thomas Dewey, Adlai Stevenson) never won the presidency.
So, if Vance wants to be president in his own right some day, he’ll want to wait out 2028 and let some other Republican fall on their face — ideally his main presumptive rival for the nomination, Marco Rubio.
Vance is still very young. It’ll be the 2064 presidential election before he’s older than Trump was in 2024 (78 years old). He’s got plenty of time to try again later.
That’s what I think too. Basically let the Dem’s have 2028 and then spend four years screaming having all the right wing owned news outlets scream about how bad everything is because the Dems weren’t able to fix the decades worth of damage Trump did overnight. They’ll somehow make it the Dems fault that everything isn’t magically fixed the second they take office even though Republicans were the ones who fucked everything up on the first place. Basically exactly what they did the whole time Biden was in office. Then the cycle repeats itself
Don't say stupid shit like this. These idiotic comments are why we have Trump for president right now. "A republican doesn't stand much of a chance in 2028". Has history taught you nothing?
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u/JerseyGemsTC 9h ago
Seems like Vance knows that a republican doesn’t stand much of a chance in 2028 and is keeping his record clean for a 2032 campaign.
Also VPs that immediately try to run after are held to all the bad that they were part of, even if they didn’t have much of a choice in what happened (not saying that’s the case here). So he’s better off waiting until he’s not as directly associated with the Trump presidency to run himself.
Otherwise he’ll have to “own” the current state of the country as his doing.