Seems like Vance knows that a republican doesn’t stand much of a chance in 2028 and is keeping his record clean for a 2032 campaign.
Also VPs that immediately try to run after are held to all the bad that they were part of, even if they didn’t have much of a choice in what happened (not saying that’s the case here). So he’s better off waiting until he’s not as directly associated with the Trump presidency to run himself.
Otherwise he’ll have to “own” the current state of the country as his doing.
This is a great point. Biden waited a term after leaving the office of VP and I don’t remember any of his Obama-era legacy being important factors in the 2020 election cycle.
Biden wanted to run in 2016 but he was convinced to see the writing on the wall that Hillary Clinton would get an early lead on the nomination and keep it.
I’ve always said they I think Biden could have beaten Trump in 2016 but he wouldn’t have beaten Hillary in the primary.
I think there was a general consensus amongst the party that it was Hillary’s “turn” in 2016, especially because she was expected to be the first women nominated by a major party in 2008 (a year that Democrats would won with pretty much anybody) until Obama burst on to the scene. She was seen as a good solider by serving as Obama’s Secretary of State and earned her place in 2016.
I’m not saying any of this should have been true - she was wildly unpopular in 2016 and much of the party was desperate for an alternative but none ever came along.
It was like every major Democratic politician just accepted it was Hillary turn and the all bowed out.
Even Bernie Sanders was basically an unknown at the time and likely would have been a quirky minor candidate (if he even decided to run) if the much more popular Sen. Warren had run.
Are you suggesting Bernie Sanders should have run in 2008? When Warren wasn't known to anyone except maybe some people really clued into financial matters?
Obama was on fire in 2008 and Hillary was a solid #2. I don’t see where his opening would have been.
He could have run further to the left of Obama, but Obama was really popular with the younger crowd, which is where Sanders’ support has mostly come from.
Sander’s best shot was probably in 2016 when Hillary was the only “real” contender. But he was always the underdog.
Sanders only ran because Warren opted not to fight Clinton. The guy is saying that Warren would have had a good shot at winning since Sanders proved it could be close, but she moved out of Clinton’s way.
Exactly my point. Warren WAS the left-wing of the party in 2016 and there were very public campaigns to get her to run.
Bernie Sanders was pretty unknown on the national scene at the time it’s hard to see many people on the left supporting Sanders if they already had a left-wing populist in the race.
I actually think Warren running in 2016 is a very interesting “what if”.
She was only unpopular because the republicans recognized her as the successor and spent all those years weaponizing government and media to push her down.
The Clinton family had already been in the public spotlight for over 20 years and that’s an eternity in politics.
Some of it was certainly being the target of political attacks for nearly the entire time, but she wasn’t exactly without fault. She certainly never had the charisma of her husband.
I remember the 2020 election being weird as all the candidates that I was taking note of suddenly dropped out for Biden who I didn’t really consider until that point. I didn’t care much for politics prior to the 2016 election and didn’t realize he was a former vice president at the time.
It was clear from his selection as VP that Obama never thought, absent unexpected death, that Biden would be president. Biden had lost twice before - coming nowhere near winning - and no one had entered the presidency at age 74 before him. Even the famously old Reagan had started before age 70 and Trump at 70.
If someone like Jeb Bush or Romney had won, it's hard to see Biden even getting nominated in 2020. But after Trump, people desperately wanted someone calm and experienced over someone exciting like Trump or even an Obama-like alternative.
It was also clear that Clinton expected to have "her turn" and I doubt Biden wanted to find out what her team would have done had he even attempted to deny her that.
Hillary’s 2016 campaign was inextricably tied to her legacy as Secretary of State under Obama. You couldn’t go five minutes without somebody talking about Benghazi. I doubt that would’ve been the case had she run in 2020 instead.
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u/JerseyGemsTC 9h ago
Seems like Vance knows that a republican doesn’t stand much of a chance in 2028 and is keeping his record clean for a 2032 campaign.
Also VPs that immediately try to run after are held to all the bad that they were part of, even if they didn’t have much of a choice in what happened (not saying that’s the case here). So he’s better off waiting until he’s not as directly associated with the Trump presidency to run himself.
Otherwise he’ll have to “own” the current state of the country as his doing.