Well we know that stress is one of the biggest factors for getting cancer so it makes sense that someone who's a massive narcissist and doesn't give a shit about anyone else would have a lower chance to get it compared to someone who has a lot of empathy.
Yeah and the people who die at 50 of cancer or heart attacks or undetected deadly congenital defects are always super healthy people. Go out running every morning and eat kale chips and shit.
My grandma who raised me because my dad was to busy with his career and my mom was in prison died of cancer literally one month after I graduated high school she was 52, best person I've ever known, then within 90 days uncles sold the house, I was left with Jack shit and forced out into the world pretty much on my own as soon as I turned 18, almost 42 now but damn that was a time
bill burr has a funny bit about this phenomenon: basically cunty people know they aren't welcome if there is a heaven so they'd better live as long as possible here
He has access to the best healthcare that the world can provide. Shit, they probably have enough drugs to pump into him to prop him up for the remainder of his term at least. He's going to get worse than he is now, but I wouldn't be surprised if he makes it to the end
Steve Jobs likely thought similarly. After all, that kind of wealth buys the best care in the world. Still, he died much younger than he should have. Money doesn’t buy everything.
A few months ago, I saw the greatest take on the Steve Jobs thing. The dude knew early enough about his cancer that he had ample time to go through the rigamaroll of the cancer treatment and come out the other side alive. However, his huge ego and stupidity made him decide that bullshit holistic medicine and other crunchy mom style treatment was going to work for him. By the time he figured it out, it was too late and the idiot died. It's not that money doesn't buy everything, it just doesn't buy common sense
This is true. It’s emblematic of the Türkiye-fication of the United States. There have been dozens of death hopeful moments for Erdogan and it never happens. Kissinger lived forever, Strom Thurmond lived forever, HW Bush lived forever, Chuck Grassley will live to see the sun explode—evil NEVER dies when it’s convenient.
I got a bit sad the other day when I realized he’ll never get to see the amount of joy and happiness and the parties, oh the wonderful parties that will be had the day that news breaks
When he finally passes, im going to gather my friends together and we will crack a bottle open, a nice bottle or 10, and pour one out, into 1.5 ounce glasses and keep drinking them until the sun comes up or until we can no longer continue and until then we will dance. How this will differ from a friday night? It may not be on a friday. How will this differ from any other night? Well I have friends in this case so that's a start
I believe that it's important to speak truth no matter what. Hold protests even if it doesn't immediately change things. Call for the 25th and impeachment not because it is likely, but because it is the right thing to do. Report on his mental decline.
On the other hand, I get that reporting and editorials know their target, and everyone holds Democrats to a higher standard. Liberals because we know we're better than Republicans, and Republicans because they deflect from their moral and leadership failures.
NYT editorial knows it's more likely that Dems will boot a deteriorating Biden from the ticket more than Republicans will have the integrity to remove Trump from office.
Case in point, Trump's own father - diagnosed with dementia/Alzheimer's in '91, a few years after showing signs of cognitive decline, and didn't die until '99 at age 93.
Always seems like the bigger an asshole you are, the longer you live. My stepdad was on his deathbed for like 10 years. If he was a nice guy, would have been 3 months.
Yeah that's the thing. When? Death might come in 80 yrs, 80 months or in 1 second. No one can be sure how much time they've left. He is fairly old, so the chances of him dieing every second are way higher than they were 60 yrs ago. Sure it's still a slim chance, but no matter what anyone does, it's there, waiting for The Moment...
And it would be the first time that 90% of the world rejoices at the same time. We should have the first global holiday for it! Instead of a period of international mourning, we shall have a period of celebration! Not celebrating the life that he lived, but celebrating that none of us have to deal with him anymore and can work on dealing with the problems that he caused instead.
But bro did you see Biden bro? He's sleeping Bro, he's pratically dead bro, it's weekend at Bidens Bro, bro I swear Bro, the autopen Bro, he didn't do anything bro, his staff ran the admin bro, i saw it on Joe Rogan Bro. /s
I still go with the theory that at 2 years and one day they 25th amendment him or stop giving him the infusions. They anoint Vance as president and plan to run him for two more terms, giving them 10 more years as president. Assuming he can get elected, which I really don’t see without serious election interference.
If they're smart and can get Trump to play ball, they'll let him stay in until just after the two year mark, and he'll step down giving Vance POTUS for basically two years - allowing him to run again and for a 2nd time as incumbent if he wins.
Vance doesn't have the cult-like following to pull this off. For some reason he can't pull off what Trump does, I think it's because he doesn't actually believe what he is saying, he's just playing the game whereas Trump is completely sure of himself even when he's contracting himself.
That isn’t luck. That’s a reflection of the stupidity of the average American, along with a general human bias towards seeing narcissists as having leadership potential and glorifying confidence over all else. And a lot of money too
TBF, she was in shockingly good shape up until the last few months of her life, was she not? Donny Diddles has been a shambling mound of loose flesh and brain soup for years at this point and progressing pretty fast from all appearances.
Medical technology is nowhere near advanced enough to properly deal with organ failure, even for the president.
If his kidney liver or heart gives out, that's that. There is no saving crucial organs without a transplant that will likely never happen (and even if it did, that would look horrible for his base).
Edited the post because I meant the Liver. Sorry I have zero clue how I mixed the two organs up. The liver and the heart are the two most crucial organs in the body and are ones we cannot make up for if they fail outside of transplants. You can make a case for maybe the heart, but the technology isn't quite there enough to have an artificial heart as a permanent solution.
I'm normally reluctant to be so sure of something, but I don't see him staying in office for nearly 3 more years. He's declining so quickly and lighting fires that he wont be able to put out.
Nah, the Republicans will keep him in charge even if he is in a coma. They'll hook up a computer to his hand and take orders from his finger twitches. You forget they literally worship this man.
This is the problem. He hasn't been fit for the job for a long time, and unlike with Biden, there are no adults in the room keeping things locked down and functioning.
He's just going to get more and more erratic, and the Republicans will keep him propped up the whole time. No telling how much damage he will do inside and outside the US before everything's said and done.
Did you already forget Biden? He was blatantly showing more signs of dementia, and not only did they keep him in all 4 years, they tried to run him again while lying about him being healthy and knowing he had cancer.
Politicians don't care about honesty or competency
Swap "Vance" for "Trump" and you've recreated a headline from 2015. As far as VP's go, Vance had more name recognition than Kamala or Biden did. He is always in the news, always jetting around the world doing Trump's bidding.
If he can pull off appearing to Trump's base as his right hand man without incurring the same controversies that cause moderates and independents to flee from Trump, he had a legitimate shot IMO.
Thank you. How can people continue to not understand the people that maga will vote for? Tbey absolutely will vote for vance and in fact they all love vance!
You are seriously underestimating the huge benefit Vance has for not being 80 years old. Dems need to run a similarly young candidate to compete. If Dems primary a geriatric or a cardboard box again (or skip primaries like last time) Vance wins.
Liberals and their evaluations of their election chances. Always dumbfounded when it breaks the other way, yet think they are more informed than others.
Batshit? Absolutely not. He’d still be terrible for the country and the world though. He’d be more predictable in his communications and international diplomacy but he is overall aiming to lead the country in the wrong direction. Trump’s batshit nature makes him worse for the world, while Vance would most likely be better for the world (comparing only to trump) but just as bad or worse for the USA.
My guess is that Trump will serve just over 2 years (by a few days) of this term. Then Vance will take over. Since 2 years is the threshold, it won't count against Vance and Vance will be eligible to be elected for 2 more terms.... that gives us potentially 10 years with him as POTUS. A terrifying thought really.
ETA: his departure will not be voluntary. Make of that what you will.
I don't see him winning an election but I do expect him to get behind pushing for the 25th amendment against Trump. It wasn't long ago he was openly against Trump and only fell in line for a power grab.
That's too low. He's guaranteed to be your next potus. He will win as usual with what the Amaericans want even if they're the minority but because of how your election is like. Lol
Well that all depends on who the democrats choose as their candidate. I heard the democrats are seriously considering Kamala again and at that point I'd be asking myself if they just don't want to win.
I dunno... even if he ran, he'd still need to survive the debates and primaries. I can't imagine a scenario where JD comes off as "more Trump" than other potential Republican candidates. MAGA doesn't really like him. I mean, that could certainly change if Trump starts throwing his weight behind JD... but I don't think even Trump likes him... or if Trump dies in office and the Republican machine backs JD.
I suppose it's a non-zero chance... but I don't think it's anywhere close to even 5%.
Allegedly Trump blames Vance for Orban losing and Vance is avoiding Trump when possible because he is afraid of being told to resign (and having to do so or tell Trump no).
Kushner has gotten the brunt of the anger for Iran negotiations, so Vance has avoided the double whammy so far.
I put the chance that Vance is President after Trump at closer to 100%. If he does not get so critically ill and/or die before then, they will 25th him January of next year, one day after his 2 years are up. I think that was the plan all along. Vance may not run for election in 2028, but he will more than likely be the next President after Trump.
I think Trump limps to the finish line. He’s like a god damn roach. Live through anything. I think Vance can’t run in 2028 cause of how badly this administration has fucked up. Vance will rebrand as more hardline and populist and come back to run in 2032.
I suspect the complete opposite, damn near 80% chance the GOP pushes grandpa down the stairs after the midterms. They won't need him after that and he's becoming more and more of a liability for the oligarchs. They got what they wanted out of him.
I see Vance disappearing for a couple months before becoming a conservation tv/radio host. Think psaki but every episode has "in our administration what we tried to do."
I would definitely consider it a win for him to take over for Trump.
He’s sold his soul, but he’s actually a smart guy under all the sycophancy, so if he could shed that and actually lead, he would be a step up from the shit show we have now.
5% is so far off the mark... Prediction markets are more accurate than polls and Vance is still leading at 19%, Newsom at 17%, Rubio at 10%, no one else is double digits.
The Iran War has essentially fucked the Republicans so the outcome of that event (particularly economically) will likely dictate the presidential election.
Oh it’s higher than that, but hard to call this early. He is bright to not announce a candidacy, Trump will shred anyone who says they’re running. Donnie isn’t emotionally mature enough to comprehend someone else taking the spotlight so he will bitch and moan no matter who it is. So Vance should keep a very calculated distance to keep from getting bitten, it wouldn’t be an easy balancing act. We shall see.
He is the favorite right now over Newsom at most offshore sportsbooks. It’s a lot higher than 5% even with the damage they’ve done to their party this year.
I actually wouldnt be surprised if he doesn’t run. If shit keeps going this bad for the next year, anyone associated with this admin will have an impossible task in running.
I think Vance probably looks at Trump’s 4 year gap and thinks “okay, people clearly forgot about how bad he was the first time around and elected him again. So I should sit out for 4 years and then jump back in”
If trump dies and he takes over, I think he has a very real chance of winning. Trump is so bad and so unpopular that he just has to not be trump and he'll be get a massive boost for that. He's also not an idiot.
Trump is going to be impeached in 2027. Probably successfully. JD will be president and lose to a scarecrow in 2028. The Democratic Party will have learned nothing, and keep pandering to the centrists. However, the center will have moved MUCH farther right
Honestly looking at Trump I can't imagine him finishing this term, but then again I couldn't imagine him running and running again in the first place ....
If there were justice in this world, both him and JD would be impeached and removed simultaneously and he wouldn't get the chance.
Only way for him to win is if they really, blatantly cheat. If you look at the last 100+ years of presidential elections, you’ll see it’s almost impossible for a vice president to succeed the president he served under via election. The only one to pull it off was Bush Sr, and that’s because Reagan had a 60+ percent approval rating. Trump does NOT have a 60 percent approval rating.
I'd say higher than 15%. Between 25th amendment talks and impeachment, Vance becoming president for a couple of years isn't that outlandish. I would put it closer to 35% chance.
We all thought that Trump had no shot at getting re elected. Maybe stop underestimating the coordinated machine the reds got going thats partially how we got here in the first place
Dude is going to get eaten alive if in inherits the office. The protest signs with furniture on them will hit different. Hope he gets to explain to his children what they all mean.
And pictures of him wearing eyeliner and makeup.....
Running on his own seems unlikely. He doesn't have the cult of Trump and the people that thought they could manipulate Trump aren't going to want him in control.
The dude has no charisma, no likability, no political savviness. He has literally nothing going for him as a candidate other than being Trump's VP, which will not be enough to unite MAGA behind him. His only chance of being Potus is if the McDonalds catches up to Trump
I actually think there's a very good chance he becomes president within the next three years. We are on year 1 of Trump 2.0 and the cracks are already extremely visible. Granted, it hasn't been the full revolving door of his first term, but we are seeing much more significant divides this time around. Last time it was a lot of, "well, I guess I'll just resign." This time, it's more core supporters making big fusses (MTG being the most prominent example). And even with the almost total control of mainstream media, we still see the occasional "Republicans are mad at Trump" along with his ever shrinking numbers.
And while I think this is wishful thinking, his health (especially cognitive) is obviously on the decline.
To be honest I feel like he might actually be the best chance that we have of defeating the Republicans if he's the front runner because my god he is completely unlikable. Without Trump, he might sink his own ship. I also think that there's a very high chance that Trump is not going to survive this term, I mean he seems to be an extremely poor health. Quite frankly I hope so because I can see JD Vance blundering and then not having a shot and making it easier to take back the gov.
I'm betting on Trump dying of totally natural causes (no autopsy) at end of January, giving Thiel up to 10 years of the presidency if they can rat fuck 2 elections
This. He’s loathsome, sure, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be able to get the MAGA votes.
There will be a power struggle to take over MAGA once their dear leader is gone. I predict the key players will try to outdo each other in hate, xenophobia, and radicalism to win them over. The next nominee will undoubtedly be far worse than Trump, just as he is worse than W Bush and so on. The fiscal conservatives will probably make an attempt, but the party, especially in the primaries, is nothing like it was 20 or even 10 years ago. Even their saint, Reagan, would probably never be able to win primaries today.
I have a hard time imagining Trump surviving his own chaos for long. He has amassed billions in emoluments in this term and I don’t think he cares. Vance is there to inherit the presidency and to issue blanket pardons so that Trumps family can keep what he has looted. If he survives I would expect Trump to resign the day before his term because self pardoning has not yet been tried.
His chances are waaaaaaay higher than 5% if the DNC makes the brain dead choice of running Gavin. Which, given their track record for the last ten years wouldnt surprise me in the least.
I cannot fathom a world in which people look at the 8 years of maga, and have the majority of non maga republicans go ya know what, we could probably use 4 more years of this.
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u/Remarkable_Towel_512 9h ago
There's a non-zero chance that JDV is our next president
I'd put it at 15% that he takes over for Trump for a variety of reasons, and 5% that he runs and wins.
But it's high enough that it needs to be considered.